There IS plenty to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. We've certainly come a long way (baby) from a year ago.

Let's not forget, avoiding a second Great Depression was no foregone conclusion in the immediate wake of Lehman's collapse. Then there's our portfolios. True, your 401(k) and IRA are probably less plentiful than a few years ago but the statements sure look a lot better now than they did heading into March of this year.

Many choke up the (relatively) good news to a stronger economy.

Many, but not all.

Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg (formerly chief economist with Merrill Lynch) recently told Barron's he's not sure we're better off than we were after Lehman.

Here's just some of the reasons why:

• Since Lehman, we have lost 6.2 million jobs
• The unemployment rate is 10.2% now, versus 6.2% the day before Lehman collapse
• Real gross domestic product is still down 3% since the summer of 2008
• Housing starts are down 30%
• Auto sales are down 23%
• Bank credit has contracted by $500 billion, or 8%
• Household net worth is down $7 trillion
• Home prices are down an average of 10%
• Apartment-vacancy rates are up a percentage point to 11.1%
• Consumer confidence is down 11 points
• The budget deficit has tripled

It's hard to argue with these facts. But allow me to play devil's advocate.

As the stock market continues its winning streak from March levels, cries against the evil speculators and short sellers have subsided -- for now. If any cracks in the recovery story emerge, beware of attacks against short sellers, says Robert Sloan, managing partner at S3 Partners. The firm offers outside financing for hedge funds and manages about $5 billion in assets.

Blaming shorts during bad financial markets is "a convenient way to take a very complex problem and isolate it," says Sloan, author of a new book, Don't Blame the Shorts: Why Short Sellers Are Always Blamed for Market Crashes and How History Is Repeating Itself. "It becomes very easy to encapsulate all our ills into one financial instrument and it just so happens that since the Depression it has been short selling that's been the repository of that blame."

Part finance book, part history lesson, "Don't Blame the Shorts" offers historical perspective on the controversial trading practice, and shows how America's distaste for speculators dates back to the Founding Fathers. (In short selling, investors sell securities or futures they don't own, but hope to buy back later at lower prices.)

During the 1930s, for example...

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The economic recovery isn't as strong as first thought. Revised GDP figures released this morning show the economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace in the third quarter, less than the 3.5% initially reported. The revision was in-line with expectations but shows the economy didn't have as much momentum heading into the fourth quarter as previously believed.

Unlike Wall Street traders, consumers seem to know the recovery is "anemic," as Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, describes it. The Conference Board's latest confident survey shows Americans feel worse about the current economic situation than they did in March, when the stock market was making new lows. (Thanks to Dan Greenhaus of Miller Tabak for pointing this out this last fact.)

Yet, stocks are still near their highs of the year. Going into the final hours of trading Tuesday, stocks were in the red but well off the lows of the day.

What's driving the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street?

Ritholtz says it's a classic example of bad news being good news on Wall Street. "We're in a cycle that's not based on profitability, not based on expanding economy but based on all sorts of government supports," he says. "Bad news is going to be good news for the next couple of quarters probably."

That's because...

From The Business Insider, Nov. 24, 2009:

The FDIC fund that insures bank deposits is $8.2 billion in the hole.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. released its latest set of grim banking data moments ago. The FDIC had to set aside $21.7 billion for expected losses on future bank failures as the total number of "problem" banks rose to 552 from 416.

There were glimmers of hope. While bad loans continue to beat up bank balance sheets, revenues are returning to the banking sector. Overall, the banking sector was profitable after a $4.3 billion loss in the second quarter and saw just $879 million in earnings last year.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

• FDIC Will Keep Backstopping Banks...Just in Case
• FDIC Says Banks Need to Cough Up $45 Billion for Insurance Fund

Suddenly, it's the least attractive job in the country.

Bank of America has been searching for a new CEO for months, ever since battered Ken Lewis announced that he was stepping down.  But no one wants the job. 

Why not?

Because they'll have to listen to annoying government bureaucrats vilify them all day, says analyst Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities.  Because they'll be unable to hire top people because of pay constraints.  Because they'll be forced to chop up the company instead of reaping the rewards of scale.  Because they'll be limited to a pay package that would make the average dime-a-dozen Wall Street managing director go bitching to his boss about how he was being underpaid.

All of which means, Bove says, that Bank of America's board once again looks incompetent. ...

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Peter Schiff's views as an author, investor and free market idealist are no secret: Abolish the Fed, buy gold and avoid the dollar. With that in mind, Sunday night was something of a dream come true for the President of Euro Pacific Capital.

Thanks To Princeton University's Business Today, Schiff went head to head in New York City with St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder in a panel titled, "Challenges of the Global Slowdown: Redefining Government Regulation."

It might as well have been called "Schiff Blames the Fed for the Financial Crisis."

We caught up with Schiff after the panel to discuss some of the points mentioned in greater detail. (Click here for our one-on-one intereview with Bullard from the confab.)

Schiff on capitalism

The irony here is that Bullard is being characterized as a dove when, in fact, the opposite may be true. This is no small matter since Bullard will become a voting member of the FOMC in 2010.

So let's review:

The dollar weakness Monday morning was attributed, in part, to Bullard's comments that he would like to see the Fed continue its program of buying mortgage-backed and other asset-backed securities, rather than let it expire on March 31, as currently planned.

As with last week's brouhaha over his comments about the Fed possibly staying on hold until 2012, the headlines about the asset-buying program miss some of the nuance of Bullard's view.

Bullard recommends continuing the program "at a very low level," Dow Jones reports, adding: "As long as we are at zero [percent], we'd be able to send signals to the markets about what we are thinking about the economy, and how much accommodation the economy needs at various points, by adjusting the asset purchases."

In other words, if the asset-buying program is kept open, it can be another tool for the Fed to communicate with the market by means other than moving the Fed funds rate.

After spending some time with Bullard Sunday evening, it's pretty clear to me that he's no dove. As you'll see in the accompanying video, Bullard is very concerned about the potential for asset bubbles and the Fed's role in creating them...

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From The Business Insider, Nov. 23, 2009:

The New York Times -- not usually the first publication you'd think of when it comes to calling for fiscal prudence -- sounds the alarm over the government's massive debt load.

The premise is that, although we're fine now, borrowing money cheaply, we've got a huge refi coming up, and there's an excellent chance it will be way more expensive.

With the national debt now topping $12 trillion, the White House estimates that the government’s tab for servicing the debt will exceed $700 billion a year in 2019, up from $202 billion this year, even if annual budget deficits shrink drastically. Other forecasters say the figure could be much higher.

In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

A really astounding fact, noted in the article...

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More coverage from The Busines Insider:

• Ben Bernanke's 1938 parallel
• Goldman super bullish on China

On the heels of Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankenfein's apology for his firm's role in the financial crisis, some of Goldman's largest shareholders are unhappy more of Goldman's prosperity isn't being passed along to them, The WSJ reports.

Despite record net income and compensation, analysts forecast Goldman's 2009 earnings per share will be 22% lower than in 2007, and roughly equal to its 2006 earnings, according to Thomson Financial. The drop in EPS is caused by the more than 100 million shares issued in the past year to bolster Goldman's financial position and capital.

While the article doesn't name the "miffed" shareholders, Goldman's five-largest shareholders as of Sept. 30 are mutual funds:

1. AllianceBernstein
2. Barclays PLC unit
3. State Street unit
4. Vanguard Group
5. Wellington Management

As Aaron and Henry discuss in the video, the standard payout ratio of 50% of profits Wall Street has long enjoyed does not make sense in this economy. Wall Streeters could stomach a lot less, especially when most individual Americans are pocketing a 0% payout.

Of course this mounting criticism comes amid Matt Taibbi's "Vampire Squid" takedown of Goldman this summer...

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Are we on the verge of total economic collapse?

Don't laugh. The french firm Societe Generale thinks so.

The brokerage firm has put the fear of God in clients recently by predicting that developed economies and markets are going to collapse under a monster debt load and that gold is going to soar to $6,000 an ounce.

Fortunately, not everyone feels that way.

Many on Wall Street, in fact, have suddenly gotten quite bullish after missing a lot of the extraordinary 65% rally we've had since the lows of March. Hopefully, these folks--the "V-shaped recovery" crowd--are right, and the bad news of the last couple of years will soon be a distant memory.

Aaron and I are skeptical, though. The aftermath of debt-fueled financial crises like the one we went through usually lasts for many years, if not decades. Japan has been struggling to right its ship since its own bubble burst in 1990, and the country still isn't growing strongly again. (Japan's stock market, meanwhile, trades at a fifth of its 1989 high).